Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and analysis of trends. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example, in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period.

Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts. In any case, the data must be up to date in order for the forecast to be as accurate as possible.

Forecasting (heating)

Forecasting is a method of controlling building heating by calculating demand for heating energy that should be supplied to the building in each time unit. By combining physics of structures with meteorology, properties of the building, weather conditions including outdoor temperature, wind power and direction, as well as solar radiation can be taken into account. In the case of conventional heating control, only current outdoor temperature is considered.

The starting point for developing the method of forecasting was the ENLOSS mathematical energy balance model developed by Prof. Roger Taesler from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in cooperation with Thorbjörn Geiser and Stefan Berglund, who are currently both employed at eGain Sweden AB. Forecasting method began to be introduced to use in the late 1980s.

Until 2010 inclusive, forecasting method has been introduced in nearly seven million square metres of floorage of residential buildings and commercial premises. Forecasting method is offered and developed by many companies and organizations. Estimated data indicate 10 - 15 kWh/m2 reduction of average annual heat energy consumption. Since forecasting method contains information about future demand and is not in conflict with other methods of increasing energy efficiency, it is always a good foreground solution.